Sunday, 20 December 2015

Raod Rationing Plan. Delhi's New year resolution

well 1st Jan, 2016, New Delhi begins with it's transient review resolution of  pollution maintenance.
The implementation of such a resolution is a gamble as people anywhere in the world are resistant to change and with advancement they are more attached to comfort.
here are some pointers and a review on the ROAD RATIONING SYSTEM to be implemented.

Outlining the contours of its ambitious plan to curb pollution through odd-even number plate formula, Delhi government on Sunday said odd-numbered vehicles will be allowed to ply on Monday, Wednesday and Friday while even-numbered vehicles will run on the other days - Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.
It is definitely an unconventional step by the Delhi government and it may be inconvenient to us in some ways. These kind of policies are implemented in developed cities around the world for a short period of time, till the pollution levels come down. this was run down in by Hindustan times.

The Strengths
1.      The pollution of delhi has risen to an alarming level, and this policy implemented in majoy cities of other countries have worked out well to reduce pollution level. Why can’t delhi do the same. According to the World Health Organization, New Delhi had in 2014 the most polluted air of about 1,600 cities the organization tracked around the world. 

2.      It is only for a temporary basis. Oonce the pollution level is under control, the restricition will  be lifted
3.      Emergency vehicles-The minister said that the government will only allow emergency vehicles like PCR Van, Fire tenders, ambulance to run on roads in the national capital.
4.      It will also help improve the public transportation and full exploitation of such facilities
5.      Car Pooling- it makes scope for government’s old plan of no 1 man car driving.
6.      It is a system to control traffic and pollution, giving scope for faster travel and is also cost effective as people will resort to methods like car pooling, electric vehicles or cycles, etc.
7.      To take measures the city has also planned to shut down the badarpur thermal power plant due to it being out dated and inefficient. It has also proposed to take measures against generators operated by companies and factories.Chief Secretary K K Sharma 
8.      The minister has also sought people's suggestions on the government's odd-even formula. People can send their suggestions to mailto:pollutionfreedelhi@gmail.com, he said. Shows that government is ready to take into consideration the various flaws and is not making an arbitrary policy.

Beijing Model
·         On August 20th, for next 15 days, Beijing put restrictions on factory production and car use. Five million cars were forced to drive on alternating days.
·         Officials cleaned up Beijing’s air in advance of the parade by suspending or restricting the operations of 12,255 coal-burning boilers, factories and cement-mixing stations scattered among seven provinces. About 5,700 of the enterprises were in Beijing and in Hebei province, which surrounds the city.
·         90% of the Beijing residents didn’t find the restriction inconvenient as it would make their lives better
·         *Rationing was done for two months. Implementation was through automated traffic surveillance
·         *Car owners were compensated by exemptions from paying vehicle taxes for three months.
·         During the ban, Beijing’s average levels of PM (particulate matter) dropped by 73.2% compared to the last year.
·         40,000 construction sites in and around Beijing were also shut down for the duration


The Weakness                                                                                             
The problem with implementing Road Space Rationing in Delhi is the lack of public transport infrastructure. The Metro still covers only 12% of the area of the city within walking distance.  The buses are a disaster to travel in terms of comfort, frequency, safety or efficiency for the upper middle class.  There are no cycling lanes, if one had to move to more friendly sources of transport.  The central government has done nothing to encourage the use of electric vehicles or hybrids in the last 10 years. In fact their policies have discouraged car manufacturers from producing hybrids.  Car companies have therefore considered eco friendly cars a losing proposition.  If anything the price value equation for electrics and hybrids makes them luxury cars, preventing the average Indian from experimenting with them.
·         The number 0-
Zero is an even number; indeed, half of the numbers in a given range end in 0, 2, 4, 6, 8 and the other half in 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, so it makes sense to include 0 with the other even digits for rationing. However, many people are unaware that zero is even, and this ignorance can cause confusion. The relevant legislation sometimes stipulates that zero is even.
[8] In fact, an odd–even restriction on driving in 1977 Paris did lead to confusion when the rules were unclear. On an odd-only day, the police avoided fining drivers whose plates ended in 0, because they did not know whether 0 was even.
·         Control of Police
Beijing resorts to road rationing with its ruthlessly efficient police force’s writ running. Here in Delhi, however, the Kejriwal government is constantly at loggerheads with the Centre. Delhi Police, including those manning traffic, come under the Central control which for all one knows might not do Kejriwal’s bidding if only to spite him. The traffic police in many of the Latin American countries employ overhead cameras to capture smartly the number plates of cars that had no business to be on roads at a given point of time pursuant to the road rationing policy
·         Private services
Taxi drivers and auto rickshaws drivers will be the worst hit. In a way it affects the livelihood of people who are depended on private transportation.
·         Reluctance to use Public Transport
Most of the car owners are well heeled and reluctant to use public transport.
·         Corrupt alternatives
Many of them would go for a second car with a number plate that allows them to use both the cars on alternate days without falling foul of the law. And the intrepid ones would take the risk of falling foul of the law by tampering with the last digit, smug in the belief if caught they would bribe their way through.
·         Inconvenience to tourists
people from out station passing via delhi will be forced and restricted. Since the plan is leveled on equity basis, such people will be affected.
·         Doesn’t plan contingency
This policy does not take cause of an event happing like heart attack or any medical condition, floods, incessant rainfall,  food supplying trucks. This policy will hit majority of the market as well as the priority sector as transportation will be hit, storage increase, wastage increases, as well as the medical health and works totally against the public welfare scheme
·         Under-developed Infrastructure
Apart from the sheer impossibility of enforcement unless equipped with smart devices, there would untold and countless inconveniences galore. Employees would not be able to make it on time to offices in the absence of an effective public transport system on routes not covered by the Delhi metro. Patients may have to call ambulance if they fall sick on the day that is not theirs on the roads. Families would sulk if they are unable to make it to parties and functions taking place unfortunately again on days not theirs on the Delhi roads.

Alternative methods
·         Kejriwal might even rethink his proposal in a limited way -- allow HOVs or high occupancy vehicles. In Washington, for example, a car with two occupants makes the grade for this description and is allowed to enter the left most lane so it can zip past. Kejriwal can mandate four instead. Low Emission Zone, Car Free days, Congestion pricing, and Traffic Calming are other ways in which to reduce air pollution. 
o    Low Emission Zone : An area is defined for low emission with the aim of improving air quality in that particular area typically one that has much higher pollution levels.  
o    Car Free days : Where Motorists are encouraged to give up their cars for a day.  Mumbai is already experimenting with a  variation of this on Linking Road on Sundays for a few hours.  It is likely to happen in other areas as well.
o    Congestion Pricing : Where users are charged a premium to enter certain high traffic areas. For example in some cities in the world there is an extra price to pay to enter the CBD area of the city.
o    Traffic Calming : Speed bumps and other measures like narrowed roads to slow down the traffic. Unfortunately in India narrow roads and bumps to slow down cars have been in existence for other reasons for many years.
·         Singapore, for instance, uses a system of auctioned permits and electronic road pricing. Thus, the restriction is based on price rather than on rationing. Cars are charged as they drive around the city and the pricing varies on location and time of day. Such a system will require some upfront investment in technology but the outcome will be vastly better and give car users a lot more flexibility. Perhaps Delhi could even leapfrog into a more advanced GPS (global positioning system)-based system.
According to the Ministry of Urban Development Study the modal share of transport in Delhi are in the above graph.  Mass transit constitutes 42% of all journeys.  So really speaking putting the clamps down on private vehicular traffic may not save Delhi from its unacceptable levels of particulate matter. It at best can reduce private traffic from 19% to 9.5%.

Flaws in the system model
Mexico City residents began to buy extra cars with convenient number plates. In fact, they slowed down the purchase of new cars and began to buy old, inefficient cars from the rest of the country. This actually made things worse. Moreover, the shift in the mode of transportation was from cars to taxis rather than to metro trains. Thus, the taxis made more money but air quality did not improve. After two months of implementation, petrol sales went up. Based on these findings, a technical study commissioned by New York City argued against introducing such a system in 2007.
Further, the long-term outcomes were not so encouraging. A study of air quality impact published in 2007 by Lucas Davis of the University of Michigan concluded: “Across pollutants and specifications there is no evidence that the program has improved air quality. The policy has caused a relative increase in air pollution during weekends and weekday hours when the restrictions are not in place, but there is no evidence of an absolute improvement in air quality during any period of the week for any pollutant.”

Notification
Commercial vehicles status
Petrol vs diesel pollution- http://www.air-quality.org.uk/26.php

Emissions from Petrol Vehicles
Emissions from petrol cars have been dramatically reduced by the introduction of catalytic converters, which oxidise pollutants such as CO to less harmful gases such as CO2. When compared to petrol cars without catalysts, catalyst cars have much lower CO, HC and NOx emissions, at the expense of CO2 emissions, which increase due to the oxidation of carbon monoxide to CO2. As a consequence of this, a catalyst car will also use slightly more fuel and become less efficient. However, despite these improvements, petrol cars with catalysts still produce more CO and HC than diesel cars, although exhaust emissions of NOx and particulates are much lower than diesel cars. In fact particulate emissions from petrol cars are so low that they are not routinely measured.

Emissions from Diesel Vehicles
Diesel fuel contains more energy per litre than petrol and coupled with the fact that diesel engines are more efficient than petrol engines, diesel cars are more efficient to run. Diesel fuel contains no lead and emissions of the regulated pollutants (carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides) are lower than those from petrol cars without a catalyst. However, when compared to petrol cars with a catalyst, diesels have higher emissions of NOx and much higher emissions of particulate matter.
Total number of vehicles
96,34,976
http://www.delhi.gov.in/ statistical abstract
Commerciual vehicle stats.
91840 – auto
78686 – taxi
40947- bus
154654- goods vehicle
Personal vehicles
Cars and jeeps-2629343

Motorcycles and scooters-5297697

in the following view it's an over-ambitious plan on behalf of Kejriwal. a lot of questions have been raised this plan. New action plans have been incorporated like doctors will be allowed to travel, 0 will be an even number, emergency patients will be given a pass, outside tourists will be within the ambit of the embargo, etc. how far will this plan be successful....well only time will tell. 
notwithstanding anything AAP govt. is determined to implement this review plan. 

No comments:

Post a Comment